Spring 1996

Nigeria’s three main ethnic groups, the Yoruba, the Hausa, and the Ibo, are among the world’s most ancient culture. the internal struggle for power in Nigeria has been to rule over the most populated nation in Africa: with over 95 million people, approximately one in every four Africans is Nigerian. the discovery of oil changed the nature of competition for power in Nigeria to include wealth. The wealth of its oil deposits make Nigeria particularly attractive for investment from Texaco, Shell, and other foreign companies.

A History of Instability

After the British left Nigeria, tensions surfaced among ethnic groups which persist today. The government which succeeded the British was headed by the Hausa, which reside in the northern section of Nigeria. The Hausa had a feudal system of government closely resembling that of the British monarchical system, which led to some doubts of the true end of colonial influence. Regional strife and political conflicts wracked the First Republic, culminating in the assassination of two regional premiers which precipitated a military take over in 1966. In 1967, a civil war, ensued in which a portion of eastern Nigeria seceded and was reinstated only after three years of bloody warfare. Following several years of relative stability, Shah Shagari became the head of the newly formed civilian government in 1979. Under Shagari, rampant corruption as well as general economic ineptitude plagued the government. These problems, compounded by public disillusionment and the increasing strength of the military led to yet another coup d’etat in 1984, which was actually prompted by an economic crisis. Oil production plummeted from its usual two million barrels a day in 1979 to 900,000 by early 1983, and Shagari’s response was disastrous. He attempted to deal with the economic crisis by allowing the build-up of short-term debts while slashing Nigeria’s import costs. For many, Shagari was the reason for the country’s sagging economy, and offered a scapegoat for the economic troubles being endure.

The oil crisis was compounded by the lure of easy money which has often resulted in corruption at all levels, from powerful politicians rigging elections to government officers selling marriage licenses. Members of the international community were astonished by he lack of support for Shagari’s democratic government following the military coup. The absence of popular support for the democratic government, however, was not surprising. In the eyes of most Nigerians, civilian politicians were only making money - a characteristic which was sure to make democracy quite unpopular. Disenchanted with the continued corruption in the democratic civilian government, some Nigerians saw a prospect for improvement in the military government headed by General Muhammadu Bahari.

The present Nigerian government faces many of the same recurrent problems of the past. Many Nigerians lack faith in the government, and it is therefore difficult for them to cultivate a sense of nationhood. On Nigeria’s 35th independence day, General Sani Abacha, the latest head of the military government, proclaimed that Nigeria was on a three-year time table toward civilian rule. this claim was taken lightly by many, since General Ibrahim Babangida, General Abacha’s predecessor, made similar promises only to repeatedly push back the date of transition from martial law to democracy.

In 1993, Moshood Abiola, a businessman, won the presidential elections. The election results were immediately annulled by General Abacha, who subsequently installed himself in the presidency. In July 1995, when Mr. Abiola insisted that the presidency was indeed his, he was imprisoned and accused of treason along with 14 other politicians - including former president Olusegun Obasanjo (1976-1979). After a series of secret trials, the accused plotters were sentenced to death, prompting a cry of international protest.

Copping With International Pressure

Facing increasing international pressure, including condemnation from the Commonwealth human-rights team for sanctioning arbitrary killings, torture, and detention without trial, Abacha attempted to alleviate some of the pressure by introducing a complicated system of a transition from a military to civilian rule. In his independence day address, Abacha stated that the convicted coup plotters would be granted leniency, though he did not elaborate as to what extent leniency would be granted. Observers believe that they will most likely remain incarcerated for the remainder of Abacha’s term. Since Abacha has been in office, he has set up panels to examine government corruption under Babangida’s regime. One such panel found that $12 billion in oil revenues had been embezzled into what Babangida dubbed "dedicated accounts." The present whereabouts of this money is unknown and virtually impossible to trace due to archaic filing at the central bank.

More recently, the Nigerian government has been under great international pressure as a result of the execution of alleged coup plotters, including Ogoni rights activist Ken Saro-Wiwa in November 1995. The Ogoni are an ethnic group who have been adversely affected by heavy oil extraction from their land. Much of the oil which comes from Nigeria has come from the Ogoni homeland. Oil pipelines run through Ogoni villages, where crude oil has leaked into their planting fields. Ken Saro-Wiwa was a strong long time activist of Ogoni rights, insisting that the government pay the Ogoni for the use of their land. The Ogoni have been victimized by Abacha’s government, which has carried out large scale destruction of entire Ogoni villages.

Saro-Wiwa’s execution prompted Nigeria’s suspension from the British Commonwealth, the retraction of World Bank support for a $100 million loan, and the recall of the American ambassador and British High Commissioner.

Despite these moves on the part of the international community, no country has pressure Nigeria to the extent that they might risk losing Nigeria’s oil supply. Eighty percent of the government’s revenue comes from oil and attacking the oil business would certainly have a great impact on Nigeria. The existing sanctions, however, do nothing more than slap Nigeria on the wrist. The countries capable of pressuring Abacha’s government are more concerned about promoting their own interests.

The United States is a prime example of a country which has put a block on "new investment" in Nigeria, though "new investment" does not include reinvesting by US companies participating in Nigeria’s controlled joint ventures. This definition is clearly wording designed by the government to protect the interests of its multinationals. Such self-interest, compounded by a lack of concern regarding Nigeria, presents the most significant block to further reprimandatory action against Abacha’s regime.

Without further international action, instability in the Western African powerhouse could mean instability in all of West Africa, economically and politically. That would be nothing new for the region.

Mr. Kim, JE'99, is a student at Yale College.