Summer 1996

Given the availability of weapons of mass destruction and the geopolitical ambitions of newly wealthy nations, the arms race in East Asia is likely to culminate in a conflict that will change the face of the region as much as World War II did half a century ago.

The Shadow of China

Undoubtedly, China is the largest source of discontent.. Boasting double-digit economic growth figures and a newly expansionist-oriented People’s Liberation Army, China’s recent actions and official statements have generated fear and controversy throughout the world and especially among its neighbors. With a skyrocketing defense budget, estimated by the CIA at 63.09 billion yuan (more than ten percent of the budget), China’s military is rapidly improving its efficacy.1 For example, the air force recently received a shipment of Russian Su-27 Flankers, a multi-role interceptor aircraft superior in many respects to its current western counterparts. Every branch of the military is in the process of being upgraded, and China is well on its way to becoming a global superpower. Perhaps the most ominous development is the recent testing of an indigenously developed ICBM (Intercontinental Ballistic Missile) capable of reaching the western United States.

China has many disputes with its neighbors, the most heated over the "renegade province" of Taiwan. An actual invasion is unlikely, given the inadequate state of China’s navy and the presence of the U.S. in the region. Nevertheless, continued intimidation and the future possibility of a blockade are likely. Other disputes include defining the maritime boundary in the Gulf of Tonkin with Vietnam, a nation with an ancient antagonism directed at its much larger neighbor. China’s occupation of the Paracel Islands is contested by both Vietnam and particularly Taiwan, which denies the legitimacy of mainland China’s claims over any territory. Japanese administration of the Senkaku islands is also a thorny issue, with both China and Taiwan claiming territorial rights. The most important dispute is over the ownership of the Spratly Islands, a tiny island group with some of the richest oil reserves in East Asia. Conflict over the Spratlys has already caused several minor skirmishes between Chinese, Taiwanese, Vietnamese, Philippine, and Malaysian forces, all of which claim ownership. CIA analysts worry that these skirmishes could easily escalate into a full-scale conflict.

Expanding Asian Arsenals

Political tensions in East Asia have only accelerated the arms race, with several nations gearing up their defenses to deter China’s belligerence and to prepare for some sword rattling of their own. Between 1987 and 1991, East Asian countries made arms purchases totaling $29 billion dollars, a huge increase from the arms purchases made in the previous decade.2 Malaysia has purchased Hawk jets and two frigates from the United Kingdom, eight F/A-18s from the United States, and several MiG-29s from Russia. The frigates give the Malaysian navy greater range, while the Hawk, F/A-18, and MiG-29 aircraft vastly improve the air force’s ground attack, strike, and interception capabilities. Unlike years past, when it could only afford used or second-rate equipment, Malaysia can now purchase weapons that can compete with its current Western counterparts. Thailand has purchased an aircraft carrier with nine Harrier jets that performed adequately in the Falklands War in the early 1980’s. This is the first carrier to be purchased by an Asian country since the end of World War II, and greatly enhances the capability of the Thai navy. Taiwan has already bought American F-16’s, French Mirage interceptors, and six Lafayette class frigates in addition to its recent missile purchases. South Korea, which has announced its intention to double defense spending in the next five years, must be wary of both China and North Korea, the latter having caused an international crisis over its covert development of nuclear weapons. Singapore, perhaps the most industrious nation in East Asia, is intent on extending its economic prowess into the military arena by increasing its defense spending to $2.7 billion dollars, or 6 percent of GDP.3

One of the most overlooked participants in the arms race is Japan, which may become the biggest player in the arms race in the near future. Recently, the Japanese have been testing the FS-X, a U.S.-Japan joint venture aircraft based on the F-16. The development program has caused considerable controversy in Japan over its cost, estimated at $3.2 billion, for which 140 U.S. manufactured F-16s could have been bought "off the shelf."4 Strategists within Japan, however, chose to purchase the redesigned airplane to vastly increase the capability of its aerospace industry and ultimately sever the dependence on licensed production. Japan and other East Asian nations fear that the trend of a shrinking U.S. military presence in the region will continue, leaving nations that depended on U.S. protection exposed to the whims of China. By positioning itself as a future supplier of indigenously produced military hardware, Japan insures its own security as well as a large niche in the increasingly lucrative arms trade.

U.S.: Fueling the Arms Race

This arms trade is, of course, dominated by the United States. American exports of weaponry to Asia and elsewhere exceed the combined total of all its major competitors, which include Russia, Germany, France, Italy, and the United Kingdom.

Last year, for the first time, the US sold more fighter planes to foreign governments than its own. Critics have voiced concern over this trend, claiming that arms exports fuel the fires of future conflict. In a world no longer anchored by a Cold War power structure, alliances shift so rapidly that the possibility of American weapons being used against Americans has dramatically increased. State Department officials remain confident, claiming that a war with an enemy equipped with American hardware is to the U.S.’s advantage, since the weaknesses and limitations of the weaponry are already known.

If a bloody conflict does ensue in East Asia, a portion of the blame must lie with the United States. Part of the reason China has increased its defense capabilities is its distrust of U.S. intentions, which have proved unclear even to western analysts. With the economic engines running at full blast, international disputes flaring, and the world’s highest population density, East Asia is on the brink of heading down the destructive path that brought it to its knees half a century earlier. The only real hope for avoiding a repeat of this century’s horrors is U.S. leadership in the region. The U.S. originally encouraged and supported the capitalist growth in East Asia. This growth brought about the surpluses which have financed the build up of rival militaries. It should now tilt competition back towards the economic rather than the military arena by placing restrictions on its own arms exports as well as pressuring other countries to do the same. The U.S. should also seek to strengthen existing economic ties between East Asian nations or help found a new organization that would foster economic interdependence to such a degree that war would be both unprofitable and inconceivable. The nations of East Asia seem so caught up in the frenzy of the arms build-up that any hope of a solution developed among themselves is marginal. It is in the United States’ best interest to keep East Asia free of war, as the region contains vast markets which could provide a lasting, stable growth for the U.S. economy. In addition, any sign of weakness would further convince China that it may bully its neighbors without fear of retaliation for overt aggression. For the U.S. to acquiesce to a nation with scant respect for human dignity or liberty would be an intolerable act of cowardice and irresponsibility. Such short-sightedness may ruin East Asia’s future hopes of finding a lasting prosperity and cripple the U.S.’s already tottering legitimacy in the eyes of the world.

Notes: 1. CIA, The World Factbook 1995. 2. Drell, Sidney D. Technical Trends in Strategic Policy, 1993. 3. Ibid. 4. Andrews, Robert T. NAI Directorate, 1994.

Mr. Zichek, BR'99, is a political science major at Yale College.