The U.S. Pledge to Defend Taiwan
by Alex Williamson

Should both Taiwan and the People’s Republic of China agree to reunify, the U.S. should not bar the way. It is not within the domain of the U.S. to determine whether China and Taiwan should reunify. The problem at hand is that China seems to be the only party that desires reunification. At the moment, Taiwan doesn’t appear thrilled about the idea of reunification for several reasons. One reason is that while Taiwan grows more democratic, China remains staunchly authoritarian. The idea of living under a regime which does not show much respect for the rights of its citizens does not make the proposition attractive to the Taiwanese. Also, because Taiwan plays such a vital role in the Chinese economy through investment, reunification would bring Taiwan little economic benefit.

China, on the other hand, appears to be obsessed with the idea of reunification. Once Hong Kong and Macao return to China, reunification with Taiwan will become Bejing’s primary foreign policy objective. The government is so adamant about this that it may not stop short of using military force. In support of Taiwan, the U.S. should discourage, oppose, and subvert any violent attempt by China to force Taiwan back under Chinese control. The Chinese Communist Party must be made to understand that the U.S. will defend Taiwan should China attack it. To this end, the U.S. should allow the Taiwanese to buy advanced defensive weapons systems such as Patriot missiles and Aegis radar sets.

If China knows that the U.S. will defend Taiwan and retaliate in kind, then it probably will not attack. With or without U.S. help, Taiwan can defend itself. China only has the capability to move 56,000 troops by sea, while Taiwan has a 270,000 man army and over a million reservists. If China decides to invade Taiwan in the near future, it will not be able to capture Taiwan by virtue of numbers. This leaves China in a situation similar to Germany’s during 1940, when Germany could not invade Britain, and tried to bomb the country into submission

Although, bombardment did not work on England similar failure is not certain in Taiwan. Because of this uncertainty, U.S. support for Taiwan is critical. The combined force of Taiwanese and U.S. air forces could surely rid the skies of Chinese war planes. In addition, China would also have to contend with retaliatory strikes, making China unable to bombard Taiwan with impunity. With U.S. help, Taiwan would be able to resist Chinese aggression and demands. China, then, would be left without military options. If China knows that using force will not succeed because of Taiwan’s U.S. backing, it will not use force and lives will be saved.

Taiwan’s recent elections are proof of its commitment to democracy. The only thing that could conceivably stop the evolution of Taiwan’s democracy is military action on the part of the PRC. The success of Taiwanese democracy is a preview of the future of democracy in East Asia. If Taiwan’s transition succeeds, then it will be a model for the rest of the region’s authoritarian regimes. It is, therefore, in the best interests of the U.S. to see that the PRC does not subvert Taiwanese democracy through military action.

It is time that the U.S. took a stand in the China-Taiwan dispute because China, with its many unresolved territorial disputes, may not stop at Taiwan.

Taiwan Played the U.S. "Like a Fiddle"
by Marc Lanoue

On March 23, 1996, Lee Teng-hui thanked 50,000 cheering supporters for contributing to his landslide victory in Taiwan’s first democratic presidential elections. The 76 percent turnout, along with Lee’s overwhelming triumph, demonstrated the ineffectiveness of Beijing’s attempts to influence election results. Chinese opponents believe Lee’s push for greater international recognition for Taiwan masks a plan to bring about the island’s independence and end the "One China" policy.

On March 9, China’s People’s Liberation Army announced that it would conduct live-fire military exercises in the Taiwan Strait. These exercises were presumably intended to undermine Taiwanese support for Lee. Last year this scheme seemed to have the desired effect. After a series of missile tests and a Chinese broadcast of these tests five days before Taiwan’s parliamentary elections, the New Opposition Party, regarded as the most conciliatory towards China, tripled its number of seats.

How could Chinese intimidation, so effective several months ago, backfire so completely? One major reason for this was Lee’s willingness to answer Chinese threats firmly with strong language. Maysing Yang of the Democratic Progressive Party, which publicly favors independence, believes that concerned voters "supported him because he was under attack from China."

The effect of Lee’s words were somewhat reinforced by the presence of two U.S. Navy battle groups, including the aircraft carriers Nimitz and Independence, which were stationed off Taiwan’s northeastern coast. Although Lee was favored to win, American support enabled him to more vociferously denounce the Chinese saber rattling and increase his margin of victory. This has given him a popular mandate to continue his efforts to raise Taiwan’s diplomatic profile. However, most political observers expect that he will tone down his rhetoric now that he has been elected.

How was the U.S. dragged into this tense situation? There is no treaty commitment to protect Taiwan. The fact remains that Taiwan manipulated President Clinton and the Republican Congress into a diplomatic mire with China. Taiwan has influenced U.S. foreign policy in an election year in the past. In 1992, President Bush agreed to sell Taiwan 150 F-16 fighter aircraft, overriding the refusals of four previous presidents to make similar sales. This was done with the hope that the sale would win votes in his home state of Texas, where the planes are presently being produced.

This time it is President Clinton placating the Congressional Republicans and showing the American people that he isn’t soft on his foreign policy toward China, again in an effort to win votes. These shortsighted foreign policy moves only serve to grant Taiwan benefits while infuriating authorities in Beijing. In this case, analysts agreed that the danger was not the possible election results but the possibility of further movement toward an independent Taiwan. The U.S. has little control over this issue. Antagonizing China unnecessarily will undermine negotiations concerning the enforcement of American copyrights, nuclear proliferation, and the extension of China’s Most Favored Nation trading status. These issues have long-term effects and can directly affect the lives of many Americans. They should take precedence over political considerations. The U.S. should not have allowed itself to be manipulated by Taiwan simply because it is an election year. The situation was best described by Lawrence Eagleburger, former Secretary of State under President Bush, "They (the Taiwanese) have played us like a fiddle."