Winter 1996

When criticizing one another on internal affairs, Southeast Asian governments pride themselves on their discretion. Only nonregional members raised issues such as human rights at the 29th Ministerial Meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), held this past July in Jakarta. Instead, members of the regional group focused on issues such as trade liberalization and the upcoming World Trade Organization meeting. Members also discussed the prospect of ASEAN, and its security branch, the ASEAN Regional Forum, becoming too large. Although ASEAN appears to be a united organization with a common stance, ASEAN’s internal consensus on certain issues may be cracking under tensions caused by both internal and external factors.

The Jakarta meeting marked Myanmar’s (formerly Burma) ascension to observer status in ASEAN, the last step to full membership. Observers are permitted to sit in on all the meetings (i.e. the ASEAN Ministerial Meeting, the ASEAN Regional Forum, and the Post-Ministerial Conference). Currently, Laos, Cambodia, and Papua New Guinea also possess observer status.

Criticism for Myanmar

Myanmar’s role in ASEAN has sparked protests from the international community, particularly from the U.S. and the EU. While the West has been pressuring Myanmar to improve its human rights record by threatening sanctions, ASEAN has resorted to a policy of "constructive engagement," which rejects criticism in favor of a dialogue. ASEAN’s move reduces the international isolation of Myanmar’s military regime, the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC), but at the same time the official presence of Myanmar at the meeting directed the international spotlight on the country’s dismal human rights record. Much of this was due to the efforts of Myanmar’s most famous dissident, Aung San Sun Kyi. Suu Kyi, a pro-democracy leader and Nobel Peace Prize laureate, supported the imposition of sanctions against SLORC, and urged tourists and investors to boycott Myanmar.

In 1988, the military crackdown on pro-democratic supporters resulted in the loss of thousands of lives, most of whom were student demonstrators. In order to quell pro-democratic sentiments, SLORC placed Suu Kyi under house arrest and nullified the results of a 1990 election where Suu Kyi’s party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), won by a landslide. But after six years of house arrest, which ended in 1995, Suu Kyi is still a powerful force of opposition to SLORC. More recently, though, the arrests of Suu Kyi’s supporters right before a NLD conference this past May sparked a worldwide condemnation.

Myanmar has been a guest of ASEAN for the past two years and, after gaining official standing this year, seems set for full membership by 2000 at the latest. SLORC officials are campaigning for ASEAN membership, which they see as a necessary step in their process of emerging from 26 years of self-imposed socialist isolation. They are opening the doors to foreign investors who are attracted to the natural resources and cheap labor available in Myanmar. SLORC believes that industrialization cannot take place without the help of industrialized countries. according to an economic advisor to the government, "We need their technology. We need their capital. That is why we are trying to attract as much foreign investment as possible.¹"

Prior to the meeting, Suu Kyi sent letters to each member country of ASEAN, calling on them to raise human rights issues with Myanmars’s Foreign Minister Ohn Gyaw. Western nations seem to agree with Suu Kyi. The European Commission has said that Europe-ASEAN relations could suffer if the organization moved to strengthen ties with SLORC.

This also comes after the troubling June 22 death in prison of James Nichols, a friend and supporter of Suu Kyi, who acted as honorary consul for several European nations. Nichols was sentenced in April to three years in jail for having an unlicensed fax machine. Denmark, one of the countries represented by Nichols in Myanmar, has now asked the EU to consider commercial sanctions. The U.S. is also moving closer to tightening sanctions against SLORC; Senator Mitch McConnell, co-sponsor of a Senate sanctions bill banning American firms from investing in the country, thinks it can pass through Congress before it adjourns in November.² The U.S. already blocks any World Bank or International Monetary Fund lending to Myanmar.

ASEAN’s Response

ASEAN members have long followed the more tolerant policy of "constructive engagement" with Myanmar’s leaders, which stresses that improving relations and downplaying public criticism will eventually lead to both political and economic liberalization. In response to repeated questions on human rights, Indonesia’s Foreign Minister and conference chairman Ali Alatas offered a blunt response, saying that ASEAN countries are free to choose their own form of democracy and not one dictated by the West. Indeed, democracy is not a prerequisite for membership: Communist-led Vietnam was admitted last year and oil-rich Brunei, an absolute monarchy, is one of the founding members.

ASEAN’s assurance lies in the region’s growing economic markets. ASEAN’s goal in the next few years is to expand to a ten-member group that links Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. The result could be the possible creation of a free-trade area with tariffs slashed as much as five percent by the year 2003, a move which would signal the emergence of a huge common market with a combined population of 470 million people. With access to a larger and freer market, ASEAN nations will prosper more economically and this grow more influential with the rest of the international community.

Growing Pains

Despite its economic goals and common mission, ASEANs ballooning size and diverging interests may make it harder to find a regional consensus. With Cambodia and Laos due to become full members next year (and Myanmar soon thereafter), and with ten nonregional partners, many delegates felt there was a need to pause and look at the rate of expansion. One source of tension is an emerging two-tier system: a rich ASEAN and a poor ASEAN. The poorer economies such as Cambodia and Laos have different interests and goals than rich nations such as Singapore. It will, therefore, be harder to agree on economic policies that will lead to a common market.

Intra-ASEAN debate has become increasingly public, especially during the recent September 27 gathering of ASEAN foreign ministers in New York for the opening of the United Nations General Assembly session. For the first time, they discussed Myanmar’s membership bid and the rapid speed of ASEAN’s expansion. The Philippines and Thailand cautioned against rushing Myanmar into their group while Malaysia and Indonesia cautioned against waiting. The Philippines and Thailand are more critical of Myanmar’s political situation than are other ASEAN members. Philippine President Fidel Ramos even questioned ASEAN’s "constructive engagement" strategy and said that it may be time for ASEAN to review the matter in the coming months.

There is no doubt that Myanmar will eventually join ASEAN - it is only a question of when. There is some concern within the group that making Myanmar a member next year will cause a rift between ASEAN and the international community. The UN General Assembly is expected to pass a tough resolution calling for an end to human rights abuses in Myammar, the release of political detainees, and the opening of a dialogue between Suu Kyi and SLORC.

Under pressure from Philippine critics of SLORC, Ramos said that the consensus to admit Myanmar into ASEAN still exists but, "the expectations that [Myanmar] will also fulfill the standards within ASEAN for liberalized trade and a democratic system are also there.³ Another Philippine leader, Ernesto Maceda, chairmen of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said bluntly, "we are not happy about their policies ... it’s not yet time to accept the country into ASEAN."⁴

Malaysia, a strong proponent of Myanmar’s membership, wants to establish an ASEAN 10 by 1997 - the group’s 30th anniversary and the year Malaysia serves as chairman. Indonesia also dismisses looking at Myanmar’s internal situation and supports Malaysia in quickly accepting Myanmar into the group. Several critics of Malaysia’s enthusiasm believe that Malaysia and Indonesia will insist that Myanmar be admitted in 1997 because especially for the Malaysians, the prestige of the ASEAN chairmanship is at stake.

Laos and Cambodia are more certain to become members next year. Laos has been an ASEAN observer since 1992, Cambodia since 1995. But when Myammar applied for membership in August, it was just one month after becoming an observer. Many in the ASEAN community were not happy to see matters move so quickly and felt that there should be a two or three year transition period for Myanmar.

ASEAN’s rapid expansion involves an increasing number of responsibilities and ASEAN may need a period of consolidation before taking on any more members and dialogue partners. The group must also look at the possible repercussion from the international community by taking on Myanmar as a member because of the country’s highly controversial political situation. With western nations such as the U.S. and the EU considering possible sanctions against Myanmar, admitting Myanmar might very well create more problems than benefits for ASEAN.

Notes: 1. Gordon Fairclough. "Enter at Own Risk." Far Eastern Economic Review (August 15, 1996), p.63. 2. Michael Vatikiotis. "The Business of America." Far Eastern Economic Review (June 6, 1996), p.19. 3. Susan Berfield. "ASEAN Mull Myanmar." 4. Ibid.

Ms. Win, SM'98, is an economics major at Yale College.